Meet Steven den Beste

Yeah, it's a little late, since he "retired" as a blogger over a year ago. But his site is still up, and it's worth reading, maybe now more than ever. The link in the title is to an outline he wrote of the strategic situation in the Middle East vis a vis the US in July 2003. Follow the links to some of his other musings on the subject. Events have been kind to his insights and predictions.

Somewhat relatedly, there's a meme making the rounds these days in many of the begrudgingly appreciative pieces on Bush's foreign policy. It's not new, but it appears reinvigorated--a gloomy outlook on potential emerging democracies in the Middle East, particularly in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The main concern, or reasons for pessimism, can be summarized as:

-The Islamists might win in a free election
-Even if the Islamists do not win, an anti-American government might win

Apart from the likelihood of these predicted scenarios, which is a subject for debate, other questions must be asked.

-Is this necessarily a terrible short/medium term outcome for the US, as long as a civic infrastructure is being created that will enable future free elections?

-Is this counter to our objectives of ending tyranny and eliminating root causes of terrorism in the region, in the longer term?

More broadly speaking, I wonder whether the fear of Islamist electoral victories is something to act on. Acknowledging that such victories are and well should be a terrifying proposition to many of the region's inhabitants, what if these opposition forces have the means (electoral process, reasonably free media, the internet) to combat Islamism through the political process? Islamism's confrontation with reasonably free and fair electoral politics, a political battle with a more liberal Arab/Muslim ideology, is an essential step in the transformation of the region. I don't see another way to a homegrown democracy there, even if the politically and culturally regressive aspects of Islamism, especially regarding individual liberties and women's rights, are unappealing.

UPDATE: This Onion piece is sorta relevant. Headline: "Bush Announces Iraq Exit Strategy: 'We'll Go Through Iran'"

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here's a sobering piece from an Iraqi blogger about democracy's prospects in Iraq. I would quote from it, but I deleted the intro stuff, and don't want my post to run much longer. Read this one.

- posted by Anonymous @ Wednesday, March 09, 2005