The Growth of the Soil
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
 
What's News: January 26 Edition

Michael Novak at National Review thinks that the mainstream press is going to be surprised by the success of the Iraqi election. Novak predicts voter turn out, driven by Shiites and kurds, to reach as high as 70%. But where he is really going out on a limb is in his prediction that Sunni turnout may be much higher than expected. I am betting (and hoping) he is right.

I share little with the “bomb and a prayer” wing of the conservative movement these days, but one thing we do share is a child like joy at the prospect of a once-captive people getting a chance to vote. This election won’t change the situation on the ground overnight, but if the Iraqi people come out in force they will send a powerful message to the insurgents and perhaps go a long way towards achieving the goals which the administration’s half-competent strategists have utterly failed at.

China’s economy grew at a whopping 9.5% in 2004. The repercussions for the American economy is mixed. On the one hand, a lot of that money should be in the hands of corporations and consumers who ought to purchase more American products and services. On the other hand, as long as the Chinese continue to peg the value of the Yuan to the dollar, we will not reap the full benefit of comparative advantage, the economic theory that explains how all parties should benefit from international trade.

Shockingly, The non-partisan CBO says that there is no way in hell that the Bush administration will meet its target of reducing the deficit by half in four years.

MSN Money Market editor Jim Jubak takes an informative look at how the government is managing our money.



Comments:
Andrew:

That is a very interesting question, one that I don't know the answer to. One one hand, controlling the currency is just one form of market manipulation among many that governments use, and I don't know exactly how much more dangerous it is than other forms. I imagine it depends a lot on externalities. Remember that the Fed in this country exists primarily to practice a more limited form of currency manipulation through its control of available dollars in the market place.

The Chinese are certainly very concerned about inflation, which is what undermined the currency controls practiced in some (if not all) of the other situations you mentioned. As I understand it, inflation in this circumstance is essentially the market trying to correct itself against the manipulation, but that may either be an oversimplification or wholly incorrect, I will have to investigate. The Chinese central bank has raised interest rates numerous times of late in an attempt to slow growth and control inflation (no one thinks that 9% growth is sustainable. Of course, there was a time when no American economist thought that 4% growth was sustainable).

I have wanted to post here about how closely we need to watch the China experiment in general, not only for lessons about the traditional understanding of hybrid economies but also about the often cited link between free markets and open societies. The relationship between the west and China is essentially a two sided experiment. On the one hand, the Chinese have hypothesized that they can have relatively open markets while continuing to have a one party hegemony. The west has hypothesized that either an open market cannot be sustained outside of an open society or that open markets will force the society to open up. Its an amazing experiment.
 
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